Inferensi Bayes: Béda antarrépisi
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Budhi (obrolan | kontribusi) mTidak ada ringkasan suntingan |
Budhi (obrolan | kontribusi) mTidak ada ringkasan suntingan |
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Baris ka-1:
{{tarjamahkeun|Inggris}}▼
'''Bayesian inference''' nyaeta [[statistical inference|inferensi statistik]] numana sagala kamungkinan [[Probability interpretations|di-interpretasi]] lain salaku frekuensi atawa proporsi atawa sabangsana, tapi leuwih condong kana tingkat kapercayaan. Ngaran ieu asalna kusabab remenna ngagunakeun [[Téoréma Bayes]] keur matotoskeun hiji perkara. Teorema Bayes, ngaran teori nu dipake sanggeus [[Thomas Bayes]] anu mimiti ngawanohkeun ieu metoda.
Baris ka-27:
Keur conto, aya dua mangkok pinuh ku kueh. Dina mangkok ka #1 aya sapuluh coklat 10 hias jeung 30 coklat polos, sedengkeun dina mangkok kadua #2 aya 20 coklat hias jeung 20 coklat polos. Kandar milih dua mangkok eta sacara acak sarta nyokot kue coklat sacara acak oge. Asumsina taya alesan keur percaya yen Kandar milih-milih eta mangkok atawa kue coklat tea. Kue coklat nu kacokot teh coklat polos. Sabaraha kamungkinna yen Kandar nyokot tina mangkok ka #1?
▲{{tarjamahkeun|Inggris}}
Intuitively, it seems clear that the answer should be more than a half, since there are more plain cookies in bowl #1. The precise answer is given by Bayes' theorem. Let ''H''<sub>1</sub> corresponds to bowl #1, and ''H''<sub>2</sub> to bowl #2.
It is given that the bowls are identical from Fred's point of view, thus ''P''(''H''<sub>1</sub>) = ''P''(''H''<sub>2</sub>), and the two must add up to 1, so both are equal to 0.5.
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